great-warnovel Chapter 402 Debate
Chapter 402 Debate
(For the sake of plot continuity, there are two chapters today~)
"Then let's start with this question."
After Takahashi finished speaking, he looked back at the two lines of text on the blackboard.
A cooperation agreement was reached.
There was no cooperation.
He didn't rush to refute a first-year student who suddenly pointed out a problem. Instead, he looked down at his lecture notes and found the valuation table of the benefits to both parties.
"I admit that this analysis mainly calculates what Seibu and Saionji each gained after the cooperation was reached."
Takahashi looked up.
"However, even without Saionji's intervention, Seibu will not immediately lose its railway, hotels, and land."
"Projects can be delayed, funds can be refinanced if there is a shortage, or some assets can be sold. The price that Seibu will have to pay will indeed be greater, but these things will not suddenly disappear."
He spoke very directly, without deliberately making Seibu's situation sound easier.
Seibu did encounter serious problems at the time, but it hadn't reached the point where it would go bankrupt and be liquidated the next day. Its vast railway network, hotels, and land still existed and could still be mortgaged or sold.
After listening, Satsuki nodded slightly.
I agree with that.
Takahashi was about to continue explaining, but when he heard her express agreement so quickly, he paused for a moment.
"Since you agree, then the long-term assets retained by Seibu should naturally be included in the valuation."
"Of course."
Satsuki opened the lecture notes to the section on the Odaiba project.
"But without cooperation, how long will Seibu need to postpone its operations?"
"What assets does it need to sell?"
When will construction on the Prince Hotel, convention facilities, and transportation projects be able to resume?
Takahashi frowned slightly.
"There are no publicly available, accurate answers to these questions."
"So I didn't ask Takahashi-senpai to give a precise answer."
Satsuki turned to the valuation table in the lecture notes.
"However, when you calculated Seibu's hotels, land, and transportation facilities, you were using the premise of the long-term benefits that they could generate after the restoration of the project and the successful development of Odaiba."
"But why weren't the potential delays, financing costs, and asset sales that might occur without cooperation deducted from these costs?"
The classroom quieted down a bit.
Naoki, who was standing near the back door, quickly opened his handbook and soon found the table that Satsuki had mentioned.
He stared at the numbers for a while.
Takahashi did indeed estimate the revenue from the hotel and convention facilities based on their expected completion. However, the table did not include any deductions for how long the project would be halted without Saionji's involvement, how much interest would be paid on the loans, or whether Seibu would be forced to sell assets.
Takahashi also looked at his own information again.
"You mean I was too optimistic about Seibu, given that a cooperation agreement wasn't reached?"
"At least this lecture notes don't explain where this optimism comes from."
Satsuki's tone remained perfectly calm.
"You have fully included the benefits that could only be realized after cooperation into Seibu's side."
"However, the benefits of cooperation were also counted as a cost that Saionji had to pay."
Takahashi did not shy away from this question.
He picked up the chalk and wrote a few words under "No cooperation".
The project has been delayed.
Refinance.
Selling assets.
"it is good."
"This part definitely needs to be readjusted."
Several freshmen in the audience looked surprised.
They originally thought that Takahashi would immediately start arguing with the girl in the back row, but to their surprise, as soon as the first question was clarified, Takahashi directly admitted that there were omissions in the valuation.
However, he quickly turned around and pointed with chalk at the railway and hotel on the other side.
"Even if the value of these assets is reduced, Seibu will still retain ownership of the railway, hotels, and land."
"Saionji Temple only obtained the operating rights for ten or fifteen years."
Takahashi looked at Satsuki.
"As long as the time horizon is long enough, assets that can be held long-term are still more valuable than operating rights with a limited term. This judgment should be correct, right?"
"That depends on how you calculate the value of the operating rights."
Satsuki did not immediately refute his conclusion, but instead turned to the section on in-site commerce in the lecture notes.
"Takahashi-senpai, how did you calculate the operating rights for these stations?"
"The commercial area within the station, the nearby rent, and the average returns of similar shops are all taken into account."
Takahashi quickly provided the corresponding page number.
"The specific contract details were not fully disclosed, so I used a relatively conservative calculation method."
"Then why do you still need to collect daily passenger flow statistics for these stations?"
Takahashi paused for a moment.
"Passenger flow will certainly affect the revenue of businesses within the station."
"But the passenger flow is not actually included in the calculation in this table."
Satsuki raised the handouts slightly.
"What you calculated using the commercial area and nearby rents only represents a rough estimate of how much money these locations could generate after being rented to ordinary businesses."
"Saionji got more than just the right to rent out the shop."
"Food, catering, retail, GG, vending machines, and the existing logistics system can all reach the people who pass through these stations every day."
Takahashi immediately said, "It's impossible for everyone who passes through the station to make a purchase."
"Furthermore, operating these businesses requires renovations, employees, inventory, and transportation, all of which are costs. We can't just count every customer as income for Saionji after seeing the customer flow."
"Of course, not all of them can be included."
Satsuki answered very decisively.
"However, we can't just delete them all because we don't know how many people will actually make a purchase."
She pointed to the visitor flow statistics at the front of the handout with her finger.
"Takahashi spent a lot of time investigating how many people pass through these stations every day."
"When it came to the final valuation, you only kept the shop area."
Where did all these people go?
A very soft sound of pages turning came from the lecture hall.
Several freshmen unanimously flipped back to that passenger flow chart.
The numbers above have always been there.
In his speech, Takahashi repeatedly emphasized the value of consistent passenger flow to station businesses. However, when actually calculating the operating rights, he still used a method close to that of ordinary shops, without taking into account Saionji's ability to leverage passenger flow through its brand effect and supply chain.
Naoki stared at the table for a long time.
He finally understood why Satsuki had made him feel that something was missing from this otherwise perfect form with just one sentence.
Takahashi was silent for a few seconds, then looked down at the passenger flow chart on his handout.
"But we have no idea how many people will make purchases on the site."
He raised his head.
"Just fill in any proportion and the numbers might look better, but they may not be closer to reality."
"Then let's consider several more scenarios."
"Sugatsuki said."
Takahashi frowned slightly.
"How many types should be counted?"
"Take a sufficiently low proportion, then take two slightly higher proportions, and calculate them separately."
Satsuki raised her hand and tapped the form.
"This way, we can at least see in which direction the results will change after the passenger flow is taken into account."
"But those are still just assumptions."
Valuation is inherently based on assumptions. As long as the conditions used are clearly stated, others can naturally judge whether the result is reliable.
She paused for a moment, then asked:
"Didn't Takahashi-senpai also use an assumption in this table?"
"What assumption?"
"Assuming that the people passing through these stations every day don't bring Saionji a single penny."
Takahashi's gaze returned to the passenger flow chart.
Satsuki smiled softly.
"This algorithm is indeed very conservative."
"It's just a little bit biased."
A few low laughs rang out in the classroom, and several students sitting in the front row were making exaggerated winks and gestures at Takahashi.
Takahashi's brow twitched.
He didn't notice the students; his gaze towards Satsuki became even more serious.
"Even if we take customer traffic into account, operating costs cannot be ignored."
"Saionji needs to establish a corresponding supply system to deliver goods to each station."
"But Saionji already has its own supply system."
Satsuki flipped to the back of the lecture notes and found the photos taken on-site.
"These were also discovered by senior Takahashi."
The photos clearly show Saionji Logistics' trucks and the group's goods that have already entered the station's counters.
"Extending existing transport routes to new stations and building a complete logistics network from scratch will not cost the same."
"It's normal that you don't know the true cost of Saionji Logistics."
"But why do you assume that every store needs to start from scratch?"
Takahashi opened his mouth, but did not answer immediately.
He glanced down at the photo, then looked at the operating costs he had written in the table.
Those figures reference the average costs that independent merchants incur after entering the station. For a group that already has businesses in agriculture, logistics, retail, and GG, this calculation is clearly somewhat crude.
Of course, this is only from the perspective of the Saionji Group. Considering the information available to a third-year university student, Takahashi has done a very good job.
"You're right, this part also needs adjustment."
Takahashi once again acknowledged his problem.
Then, he pointed to the diagram of Odaiba's relationships on the blackboard.
"However, the positive externalities that the Odaiba development brings to Seibu still exist."
"Saionji Tower and the group headquarters will bring in employees, customers, and overseas visitors. They will need to stay in hotels and use Seibu's transportation facilities, which will increase the value of the land that Seibu has reserved."
"These profits come from Saionji's investment, but a significant portion of them will remain with Seibu."
Takahashi paused for a moment.
"You shouldn't disagree with that, right?"
"no."
Satsuki still did not avoid it.
"Seibu will certainly benefit from Saionji's investment in Odaiba."
"So——"
"However, explaining this in words seems a bit troublesome."
Satsuki interrupted him.
She glanced at the relationship diagram on the blackboard, then looked at Takahashi.
"Takahashi-senpai, could I borrow a piece of chalk?"
Takahashi paused for a moment.
The other people in the classroom also turned around.
Satsuki handed the lecture notes to Reiko, then stood up from her seat and walked forward along the aisle in the middle of the lecture hall.
She walked forward along the aisle in the middle of the lecture hall, her heels clicking softly on the steps. The freshmen who had been sitting on the side of the aisle instinctively pulled their legs back, making room for her.
Ayako watched Satsuki walk toward the podium, then gently nudged Reiko beside her with her elbow.
"It looks like it's about to begin."
Reiko turned to look at her.
"What started?"
"The one that Saionji-kun is best at."
"Keep your voice down."
Satsuki had already arrived at the podium.
Takahashi looked at her for two seconds, then handed her the chalk.
"What do you want to draw?"
"What you just mentioned is positive externality."
Satsuki took the chalk and first wrote "Saionji Into" in the blank space on the blackboard, then drew an arrow to the right.
The arrow indicates "Odaiba passenger flow".
Next, she drew two lines downwards from the passenger flow.
One of the roads leads to the Prince Hotel, Seibu Transportation, and surrounding land.
The other route leads to businesses within the station, hotel procurement, and operations around the stadium.
Satsuki lowered her arm and took a half step back to the side.
"What Takahashi-senpai just said mainly refers to the point mentioned above."
"The development of Odaiba by Saionji has brought more people in, and Seibu's hotels, transportation, and land have benefited as a result."
Takahashi nodded.
"That's right."
"The same group of people will also pass through the station shops operated by Saionji, consume goods provided by S-Farm at the Prince Hotel, and enter the dining and retail areas around the stadium."
Satsuki used chalk to mark the line below.
"The purpose of including these operating rights and procurement agreements in the same cooperation agreement is precisely this."
"Some of the visitor traffic and demand generated by Saionji Temple will return to the Saionji Temple system through these entrances."
The lecture hall was very quiet.
Satsuki's diagram was very simple, and it didn't even use much economic terminology.
Even a freshman who is just starting out can see the difference between the two arrows.
Takahashi stared at the blackboard for a while.
"So you think I overestimated the external benefits Seibu received."
"You're overestimating the benefits Seibu will gain."
Satsuki gently shook her head.
"You've simply overlooked how much benefit Saionji can reap."
She placed the chalk back on the edge of the podium.
"The same group of people bring revenue to Seibu when they stay at the Prince Hotel, and they also bring revenue to Saionji when they go to the station shops."
"If we only calculate the former and then treat the latter as the rent of a regular shop, the result will naturally be more biased towards Seibu."
Takahashi stared at the two lines on the blackboard for a long time without saying a word.